While it’s not in the cards right now, we do have the weather elements it would take to have a 1978 brand of blizzard this winter. Ultimately the timing would have to be just right. Let’s look at what it would take to have the big one in the world of Great Lakes blizzards.
As I go through the needed items for a big blizzard, know that we do have these pieces of the puzzle this year across the northern hemisphere, especially the first piece.
Here's what it would take to get a big blizzard. (Mark Torregrossa | MLive)
Firstly, we would need a heavily moisture-laden storm system. Those types of storm systems come from the southwest. As the storm moves out of Texas and north of the Gulf of Mexico, the humid air from the Gulf works its way into the storm. So a storm system that moves from Texas to Ohio would be a needed first ingredient for a big blizzard.
We do have that storm track already established in the past month, and it’s expected to continue into winter. The La Niña pattern we have now and expected to last through winter is notorious for storm systems curving northeastward.
You can see what La Niña usually brings in winter.
In big storms it’s usually not just one storm, but rather a merger of two storms. This would definitely be the case for a monster blizzard. It was the case back in 1978. Do we have the possibility of a storm system from the northwest this winter? We sure do. In fact, a storm moving in out of the northwest is fairly common for any winter. I always say these big storms are ultimately a timing thing. We would have to see the two storms merge at the right time.
A slow moving storm system is very important for “The Biggie.” We would need a blocking high pressure system east of the Great Lakes. The large high pressure that won’t budge would make the two merged storms come to a halt. That would keep the storm in the Great Lakes for more than 24 hours.
Finally, the last ingredient is kind of like which came first- the chicken or the egg? Arctic cold would have to move from southern Canada into the Great Lakes region. The arctic blast would crank up the winds and change the snow to a drier, blow-around snow. The arctic air would have to be below zero to be strong enough for wicked blowing and drifting. It’s a debate as to whether the strong storm would pull down arctic air or the arctic air would crank up the big storm.
What do we already see as we head into winter? Certainly the moisture-laden southwest to northeast storm track is there. A secondary storm moving in out of the northwest is always possible. Arctic air is not in sight on this side of the globe, as of December 9. Extreme cold is building in Siberia, and that’s cold even for Siberia. The thought now is any extreme cold wouldn’t cross over the North Pole and move into the eastern U.S. until early in the new year.
As far as an upper-level block just northeast of the Great Lakes, it’s not there yet. We would need that for a slow moving storm.
But the first, most important ingredient- moisture-laden storms, is definitely a reality.
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December 10, 2020 at 05:19AM
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We have the ingredients for a 1978-style blizzard this winter - mlive.com
"ingredients" - Google News
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