The 2021 NFL Playoffs will continue on Sunday with two more Divisional Round games to conclude the weekend. At 3:05 p.m. ET, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Cleveland Browns and then the New Orleans Saints are at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 6:40 p.m. ET to wrap up the action. And in addition to betting the spread, over-under or money line, there are also dozens of NFL player props available for each game.
Patrick Mahomes has become the gold standard of quarterbacking in the NFL and his over-under for total passing yards against the Browns is at 316.5 in the latest Divisional Round NFL prop odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Mahomes, however, has only thrown for more than 300 yards in one of his five career postseason starts. Can you trust him to get to 317 or more, or should you be backing the under in your Divisional Round NFL prop bets? Before locking in any NFL prop bets for Sunday's games, you need to see the NFL Divisional Round prop predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters Wild Card Weekend on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
With the NFL Divisional Round concluding with two games on Sunday, the model has evaluated the NFL player props from William Hill and found five strong bets. You can only see them here.
Top NFL player prop bets for Sunday's NFL Divisional Round games
The model is projecting Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady to go well under 310.5 passing yards (-115), predicting that he falls more than 30 yards short on average. The six-time Super Bowl champion threw for 381 yards last week in his first postseason start in Tampa Bay as the Bucs defeated Washington 31-23.
It was Brady's fourth consecutive 300-yard passing game but Sunday's matchup against the Saints is far less favorable for Brady and the Buccaneers. Brady threw for 239 yards and threw two interceptions in a Week 1 loss to New Orleans and then followed that up by throwing for 209 yards and three interceptions in a 38-3 loss to the Saints in Week 9. Brady was only sacked 21 times all season, but was sacked three times in each of those two games and the New Orleans defense makes under 310.5 look extremely alluring here.
The model is also high on Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb to go over 67.5 rushing yards, giving him 93 yards on average in its 10,000 simulations. Despite having to go on injured reserve and missing four games with an MCL sprain, Chubb topped the 1,000-yard mark for a second consecutive season.
He topped 67.5 rushing yards in nine of the 13 games that he's played this season and he's got a solid matchup against the Chiefs on Sunday. Kansas City ranked 21st in the NFL in run defense this season and has allowed nine different running backs to rush for at least 68 yards against them this season. The Browns will want to try to keep Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field as much as possible, so Chubb should be an integral part of their gameplan in the early going.
How to make NFL player prop bets for Sunday's Divisional Round games
In addition, the model is high on a prop bet that returns 6-1. You need to see the model's analysis before making any NFL Divisional Round prop bets for Sunday.
Which Divisional Round prop bet offers a plus-money payout? And what other prop bets does the model love for Sunday's NFL Divisional Round games? Visit SportsLine now to see the top Divisional Round prop bets for Sunday, all from the model that's up almost $7,900 on top-rated NFL picks.
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January 17, 2021 at 08:37AM
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Divisional Round Sunday NFL player props, best bets, picks: Tom Brady goes under 310.5 passing yards - CBS Sports
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