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How Does MGP Ingredients's (NASDAQ:MGPI) P/E Compare To Its Industry, After The Share Price Drop? - Yahoo Finance

To the annoyance of some shareholders, MGP Ingredients (NASDAQ:MGPI) shares are down a considerable 30% in the last month. Indeed the recent decline has arguably caused some bitterness for shareholders who have held through the 53% drop over twelve months.

Assuming nothing else has changed, a lower share price makes a stock more attractive to potential buyers. In the long term, share prices tend to follow earnings per share, but in the short term prices bounce around in response to short term factors (which are not always obvious). So, on certain occasions, long term focussed investors try to take advantage of pessimistic expectations to buy shares at a better price. Perhaps the simplest way to get a read on investors' expectations of a business is to look at its Price to Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio). Investors have optimistic expectations of companies with higher P/E ratios, compared to companies with lower P/E ratios.

View our latest analysis for MGP Ingredients

How Does MGP Ingredients's P/E Ratio Compare To Its Peers?

MGP Ingredients's P/E of 15.39 indicates relatively low sentiment towards the stock. If you look at the image below, you can see MGP Ingredients has a lower P/E than the average (32.4) in the beverage industry classification.

NasdaqGS:MGPI Price Estimation Relative to Market, January 31st 2020

MGP Ingredients's P/E tells us that market participants think it will not fare as well as its peers in the same industry. While current expectations are low, the stock could be undervalued if the situation is better than the market assumes. If you consider the stock interesting, further research is recommended. For example, I often monitor director buying and selling.

How Growth Rates Impact P/E Ratios

Probably the most important factor in determining what P/E a company trades on is the earnings growth. When earnings grow, the 'E' increases, over time. That means unless the share price increases, the P/E will reduce in a few years. Then, a lower P/E should attract more buyers, pushing the share price up.

MGP Ingredients's earnings per share fell by 1.2% in the last twelve months. But it has grown its earnings per share by 19% per year over the last five years.

Don't Forget: The P/E Does Not Account For Debt or Bank Deposits

It's important to note that the P/E ratio considers the market capitalization, not the enterprise value. In other words, it does not consider any debt or cash that the company may have on the balance sheet. Theoretically, a business can improve its earnings (and produce a lower P/E in the future) by investing in growth. That means taking on debt (or spending its cash).

Such spending might be good or bad, overall, but the key point here is that you need to look at debt to understand the P/E ratio in context.

How Does MGP Ingredients's Debt Impact Its P/E Ratio?

Net debt totals just 6.3% of MGP Ingredients's market cap. So it doesn't have as many options as it would with net cash, but its debt would not have much of an impact on its P/E ratio.

The Bottom Line On MGP Ingredients's P/E Ratio

MGP Ingredients trades on a P/E ratio of 15.4, which is below the US market average of 18.4. Since it only carries a modest debt load, it's likely the low expectations implied by the P/E ratio arise from the lack of recent earnings growth. Given MGP Ingredients's P/E ratio has declined from 22.1 to 15.4 in the last month, we know for sure that the market is significantly less confident about the business today, than it was back then. For those who prefer to invest with the flow of momentum, that might be a bad sign, but for a contrarian, it may signal opportunity.

Investors should be looking to buy stocks that the market is wrong about. As value investor Benjamin Graham famously said, 'In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine. So this free visual report on analyst forecasts could hold the key to an excellent investment decision.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with modest (or no) debt, trading on a P/E below 20.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

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How Does MGP Ingredients's (NASDAQ:MGPI) P/E Compare To Its Industry, After The Share Price Drop? - Yahoo Finance
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