UCLA guard Tyger Campbell, left, shoots over Michigan guard Chaundee Brown during the Bruins’ Elite Eight win on Tuesday.
(Darron Cummings / Associated Press)
Matt Youmans: Expect this number to go up and close as the largest point spread in a Final Four game since 1985. The Zags are 4-0 ATS in the tournament and winning by 24 points per game, so the betting public will stick with what has worked. I’m not going to emphasize the weak schedule Gonzaga has faced the past three months or make a case for UCLA pulling off a stunning upset. The Zags are legit, the Bruins are lucky to be here, and that’s why the line is headed north of 14.
USC attempted to run with Gonzaga and trailed by 19 at halftime, so it’s no secret UCLA coach Mick Cronin hopes to limit possessions in a shortened game. The Bruins have committed only 36 turnovers in five games, with point guard Tyger Campbell totaling 20 assists against six turnovers, and that type of efficient play will be needed just for the underdog to stay within striking distance. UCLA’s Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez are big guards who can get to the paint and score. Some bookmakers expect this line to hit 15.5 or 16, and that’s when I’ll bet it. I’m not playing this until it appears the point spread has reached its peak.
Pick: UCLA + 15.5/16 (waiting for the best number)
Dave Tuley: Saturday’s second national semifinal features No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga going for the first undefeated season since Bob Knight’s 1975-76 Indiana team. The Bulldogs will face the last remaining low seed in No. 11 UCLA, which has had to win five games already, including the First Four. UCLA is also the last remaining team from the Pac-12, which is 13-2 ATS (not counting the Oregon-USC Elite Eight game). The Bruins were especially impressive in taking down the East Region’s No. 2 seed, Alabama, in the Sweet 16 and then No. 1 seed Michigan in the Elite Eight, so it’s tempting to ride the hot hand.
The Bruins needed overtime to get past Bama and only beat Michigan 51-49. However, it’s hard to fade equally red-hot Gonzaga, which is 4-0 ATS in the tourney despite having to lay huge spreads and just dismantled UCLA’s Pac-12 rival, USC, to reach the Final Four. Early money has come in on Gonzaga, moving the line from -13 and -13.5 to -14 (and it was even at -14.5 at DraftKings late Tuesday night). The Over was also bet early from 143.5 at Circa to 146 at most books early Wednesday.
My initial thought is to fade that move with the way Unders have been performing at Lucas Oil Stadium. I know it’s sacrilege not to have a bet on a Final Four game, but I’m passing for now and seeing how high the side and total get bet.
Pick: Pass (lean to UCLA + 14 and Under 146)
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April 03, 2021 at 06:45PM
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March Madness best bets: Final Four picks against the spread - Los Angeles Times
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