UFC 252 predictions, odds, prop bets: Finding the best values for a big night of fights in Las Vegas - CBS Sports

gubukdadan.blogspot.com

Getty Images

This Saturday, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Daniel Cormier and UFC heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic will throw down for a third and final time in the main event of UFC 252. With each man having scored a knockout victory in their previous two fights, they now fight not only for the championship, but also to determine the greatest heavyweight in UFC history.

In the co-main event is a budding star for the promotion and sport as "Suga" Sean O'Malley takes on Marlon "Chito" Vera. O'Malley is red hot with a pair of knockouts in 2020 after a questionable two-year suspension from USADA. Eight of his 12 professional wins have come by knockout. Vera, meanwhile, is no slouch himself having never been knocked out. He's fresh off an iffy split decision loss. He won five straight before that decision.

Given the results of their previous meetings, is it a good bet that the third fight between Cormier and Miocic will also fail to make it to the judges' scorecards? That is one of the questions we sought to answer while analyzing Saturday's five-fight main card in search of the best bets for each fight.

Can't get enough UFC? Subscribe to our podcast State of Combat with Brian Campbell where we break down everything you need to know in the Octagon, including a complete breakdown of UFC 252 with Hall of Famer 'Suga' Rashad Evans.

With that in mind, we took a closer look at the main card and preliminary main event to find the best values on prop bets with odds provided via William Hill Sportsbook.

Stipe Miocic (c) vs. Daniel Cormier

Method of result	Odds
Miocic via KO/TKO/DQ	+170
Miocic via submission	+1800
Miocic via decision	+450
Cormier via KO/TKO/DQ	+190
Cormier via submission	+1000
Cormier via decision	+400
Draw	+5000
Fight goes the distance: YES	+175
Fight goes the distance: NO	-250

Pick: Daniel Cormier via decision (+400) -- Sure, the first two fights ended in knockouts. And, yes, heavyweight fights only go to decision roughly 25% of the time. But the fight plan Cormier was following in the second matchup was one that was on pace for a decision victory before he began to abandon the gameplan and open himself up for Miocic's big comeback and finish late in Round 4. With the Cormier camp swearing up and down that D.C. will stick to the gameplan this time around, the +400 line on a Cormier decision looks tasty for those who believe he will use a wrestling-first approach and put rounds in the bank.

Sean O'Malley vs. Marlon Vera

Method of result	Odds
O'Malley via KO/TKO/DQ	+150
O'Malley via submission	+2000
O'Malley via decision	+150
Vera via KO/TKO/DQ	+1200
Vera via submission	+650
Vera via decision	+550
Draw	+5000
Fight goes the distance: YES	-120
Fight goes the distance: NO	-120

Pick: Sean O'Malley via KO/TKO/DQ (+150) -- Vera has six losses in his career, all by decision, so that may cause some hesitation in picking O'Malley to score the knockout. O'Malley is just a different beast, even when compared to other big bangers Vera has faced, such as John Lineker. O'Malley will throw anything and everything at Vera and utilize his length to land with regularity. And when O'Malley lands with regularity, he has a very good chance of knocking out anyone.

Junior Dos Santos vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Method of result	Odds
Dos Santos via KO/TKO/DQ	+330
Dos Santos via submission	+1200
Dos Santos via decision	+350
Rozenstruik via KO/TKO/DQ	-110
Rozenstruik via submission	+2000
Rozenstruik via decision	+800
Fight goes the distance: YES	+225
Fight goes the distance: NO	-300

Pick: Jairzinho Rozenstruik via KO/TKO/DQ (-110) -- This fight largely hinges on Rozenstruik's mental state after getting blitzed by Francis Ngannou in just 20 seconds in May. Dos Santos has been knocked out five times in his career, including his last two fights. At 36, he isn't likely to be getting any better, or more durable, even if he has undergone a physical transformation lately. Rozenstruik has massive power and that should allow him to pick up another big win against a guy whose chin can crack and get back on track after the bad loss to Ngannou.

Herbert Burns vs. Daniel Pineda

Method of result	Odds
Burns via KO/TKO/DQ	+650
Burns via submission	-150
Burns via decision	+650
Pineda via KO/TKO/DQ	+550
Pineda via submission	+1400
Pineda via decision	+600
Fight goes the distance: YES	+275
Fight goes the distance: NO	-400

Pick: Fight goes the distance: Yes (+275) -- All indications are that this fight should end with Burns submitting Pineda. Burns has eight submission wins in 13 career fights and Pineda has been submitted six times in his career. Those Pineda numbers are misleading, however, with those submission losses all coming more than a decade ago and his ground game has improved since. Burns is still a big submission threat, but I don't know that he will finish off Pineda with a submission and the fight could turn into more kickboxing match than grappling exhibition.

John Dodson vs. Merab Dvalishvili

Method of result	Odds
Dodson via KO/TKO/DQ	+450
Dodson via submission	+1400
Dodson via decision	+350
Dvalishvili via KO/TKO/DQ	+1200
Dvalishvili via submission	+1000
Dvalishvili via decision	-150
Fight goes the distance: YES	-300
Fight goes the distance: NO	+225

Pick: Dvalishvili via decision (-150) -- Unless you have faith in Dodson scoring a knockout, the Dvalishvili by decision line is pretty much the only line that makes sense without the odds being too long for a meaningful return (like the fight going the distance at -300). Dodson has dropped off in recent years while Dvalishvili has been putting things together. Dvalishvili has had 11 of his 15 career fights go to the judges' scorecards. It's a safe pick, but one that could form a strong part of a bigger parlay.

Who will win UFC 252, and how exactly will each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight on Saturday's card, all from the accomplished expert who's up over $20,000 and has nailed 16 of the last 18 UFC main events.

Let's block ads! (Why?)

"best" - Google News
August 14, 2020 at 07:00AM
https://ift.tt/33Te3A9

UFC 252 predictions, odds, prop bets: Finding the best values for a big night of fights in Las Vegas - CBS Sports
"best" - Google News
https://ift.tt/34IFv0S


Bagikan Berita Ini