So what Shook did was take the Next Gen Stats' expected completion percentage for every NFL quarterback and compared it to those quarterbacks' actual completion percentage. But not on all passes, only deep balls, in this case only passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield in the air. The idea is simple – quarterbacks who completed more passes than should have been expected were better at throwing the deep ball.
Tom Brady was the NFL's fourth-best quarterback in this category in 2019.
As Shook noted, Brady had an expected completion rate of 31.4% on all his deep passes but he actually completed 38.9% of them. That's a positive difference of 7.5 percentage points; the only quarterbacks who had a higher positive difference were Dallas's Dak Prescott (+13.4), Wilson, naturally (+12.8) and Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes (+9.0).
Overall Brady threw seven touchdown passes and two interceptions on deep passes, helping produce a passer rating of 107.6.
Rounding out the top in this category were Kyler Murray (+6.6), Deshaun Watson (+6.6), Kirk Cousins (+6.4), Ryan Fitzpatrick (+5.4), Matt Ryan (+5.3) and Baker Mayfield (+3.9). Among those 10 passers, Brady faced some of the most difficult circumstances in trying to connect on deep throws. For instance, as Shook explained, Brady faced a pressure rate (40.7%) that was the highest of any passer on the list. Shook also noted the Patriots' "revolving cast of characters at receiver."
With Brady leaving the Patriots to join the Buccaneers and work within a Bruce Arians' offense, this issue of downfield accuracy quickly came to a fore. Considering what Next Gen Stats tell us about how well Brady aired it out last year, it's no surprise that Arians answered that question by saying, "[H]e can do everything that we want to do in our offense."
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May 26, 2020 at 08:08PM
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady among the best deep throw quarterbacks in NFL in 2019 - Buccaneers.com
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